TipRanks Smart Growth Portfolio #60: Eyes of the Machine
Dear Investors,
Welcome to the 60th edition of the Smart Growth Portfolio and Newsletter, where we spotlight a company that gives machines eyes and intelligence at the edge. But first, here are some news and updates.
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Portfolio Changes
❖ Gridlock Ahead: Itron (ITRI) is moving to the sidelines.
The original thesis centered on a transition toward higher-margin, recurring software revenue layered on top of a strong smart-metering base. While that margin transformation is clearly playing out – with record profitability and expanding cash flow – the growth side of the story is no longer holding up.
Recent results showed revenue declining both quarterly and annually, with 2026 guidance pointing to flat growth at best. That is not a temporary dip – it reflects increasing signs that demand is normalizing after an elevated deployment cycle in 2024, particularly in advanced metering infrastructure. This view is now being echoed more explicitly on the Street, with Raymond James initiating coverage with an Underperform (Sell) rating, arguing that the current slowdown may be deeper and longer than the market expects.
At the same time, while most analysts maintain positive ratings, price targets are being revised lower, signaling a reset in expectations rather than renewed conviction. The debate has shifted from how fast Itron can grow to whether meaningful near-term growth will materialize at all.
Importantly, the long-term backdrop remains intact. Grid modernization, electrification, and AI-driven infrastructure demand are powerful multi-year tailwinds, supported by trillions in expected global investment. And yet, these structural drivers are not translating into near-term revenue acceleration, and the timing of that inflection remains unclear.
With earnings approaching, the risk-reward is skewed to the downside. A solid report may lead to a short-term rebound, though it is unlikely to change the narrative, while any further signs of weakness could extend the stock’s decline. In a concentrated growth portfolio, that risk-reward profile is not compelling. Therefore, we are removing Itron from the Smart Growth Portfolio. The company remains strategically well-positioned, and we will continue to monitor for signs of re-acceleration that could justify re-entry at a later stage.
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Under Review
❖ We are keeping Aviat Networks (AVNW) under review following a short report by GlassHouse Research (GHR) on April 1 and due to our own reassessment of the company’s financial profile. There have been no material updates since, including no formal rebuttal from management – a notable absence, though not uncommon given the source.
While we do not rely on short sellers as primary inputs, several of the report’s claims remain relevant. These include concerns around revenue recognition tied to elevated unbilled receivables, persistently high accounts payable, declining remaining performance obligations (RPOs), and the ongoing NEC1 arbitration, which is confirmed in the company’s filings. RPOs have now declined for six consecutive quarters, and material weaknesses in revenue-recognition controls remain unresolved.
At the same time, recent results showed partial stabilization, including sequential improvement in unbilled receivables, stronger cash flow, and a modest cash build. This leaves the story balanced between improving near-term execution and unresolved structural concerns. Roth Capital continues to push back on the short thesis, calling the sell-off overdone and reiterating its Buy rating.
Meanwhile, the stock has reclaimed all of its post-GHR drop, driven by a technical rebound from oversold levels amid broad market optimism. Still, with no new disclosures or clarifications, the key questions remain open. Additional clarity is likely to be gained only at the time of the next earnings release on May 6. As such, AVNW remains under a magnifying glass for now, and we will reassess as new information becomes available or if the risk-reward shifts meaningfully.
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1 – Aviat acquired NEC’s Pasolink microwave business in November 2023, making NEC its largest supplier under a long-term Manufacturing Supply Agreement. The current dispute relates to alleged unpaid balances, additional component commitments, and escrow release terms – all disclosed in the company’s 10-Q – and represents one of the more concrete issues raised in the short report.
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❖ We are keeping Telos Corporation (TLS) under review despite continued modest upside in the stock, with the recent move appearing largely in line with broader tech strength rather than driven by company-specific developments, as it remains too early to determine whether the rebound can hold in a volatile market.
Fundamentally, the story remains broadly unchanged, with limited new developments to either reinforce or challenge the current thesis. The company continues to expand its TSA PreCheck enrollment footprint, including the opening of a new location at Elko Regional Airport, building on the recent University of Central Florida launch and bringing total coverage to over 500 locations nationwide. These efforts support ongoing momentum in the Telos ID segment, but do not materially alter the near-term outlook.
The backdrop still points to improving execution, with growth anchored in durable government programs and incremental upside from newer offerings like Xacta AI. At the same time, visibility remains largely tied to existing contracts, with no clear evidence yet of accelerating new business momentum. While shares have moved higher over the past week, the advance appears more technical and macro-driven than a reflection of new information. Growth is still expected to normalize beyond the current cycle, and margin pressure alongside uneven profitability continues to weigh on sentiment.
With no meaningful new disclosures, we see little to change our current stance, and would want to see more consistent execution, clearer new business momentum, and signs that profitability is stabilizing before turning more constructive. As such, we are maintaining the Under Review status and will reassess around the upcoming earnings release on May 8, which should provide a more definitive update on both growth visibility and margin trajectory.
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Portfolio News
❖ ACM Research (ACMR) announced its plans for a potential listing of its Chinese subsidiary, ACMS, on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. ACMS is listed on the Shanghai exchange, and although ACMR owns 74% of the company, the parent trades at ~60% discount to the value of its ownership stake in the subsidiary. This disconnect is due to strong local demand amid limited alternatives, combined with restricted cross-border capital flows, investor base segmentation, and a political risk discount applied to China-linked U.S.-listed stocks.
ACMS is valued at about $11.1 billion, which means that at current share prices, ACMR’s stake is worth over $8 billion. However, the parent company is trading on NASDAQ at a market value of just about $3.5 billion, well below its Chinese asset. The Hong Kong listing is expected to help address this disconnect, unlocking valuation for ACMR’s shareholders. In contrast to mainland China markets, Hong Kong is accessible to global investors while being more aligned with Chinese valuations. As a result, a Hong Kong listing could facilitate arbitrage, unlock additional investor flows, and help shrink the valuation gap between ACMR and ACMS. Some analysts estimate up to 100% potential upside for ACMR shareholders if the valuation gap normalizes.
Following the Hong Kong proposed listing disclosure, ACMR received a letter from investment firms Kerrisdale Capital and Steamboat Capital, offering to anchor a Hong Kong public offering with $40–100 million combined. The offer validates the H listing strategy, as the investors cite an “attractive opportunity” linked to potential valuation convergence, adding that they are “believers in ACM Research’s long-term fundamental growth story.”
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❖ Arlo Technologies (ARLO) is pushing beyond home security with its latest move – the acquisition of medical alert platform Aloe Care Health. While the deal comes without disclosed financials, the strategic logic is clear: the deal facilitates expansion into a higher-value, faster-growing market.
Aloe Care brings remote senior monitoring capabilities, including emergency alerts and caregiver connectivity, aligning closely with Arlo’s existing AI-driven detection and alert systems. The overlap is no coincidence: Arlo is leveraging its core technology – sensors, AI recognition, and real-time alerts – and applying it to a more critical use case.
Senior care services tend to be subscription-heavy and far stickier than traditional home security, opening the door to higher lifetime customer value. With aging populations driving demand, ARLO is positioning itself not just as a security provider, but as a broader AI-powered monitoring platform.
Arlo Technologies is scheduled to report its Q1 2026 earnings on May 7 after market close.
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❖ Cantor Fitzgerald raised its price target on MKS Inc. (MKSI) from $300 to $400 – implying an upside of more than 48% from current levels – and reiterated its “Buy” rating, citing a structural shift in the company’s growth ceiling.
There were several factors supporting the aggressive hike. First, analysts noted that AI is transitioning into the primary driver for MKS’s Electronics & Packaging segment, replacing traditional catalysts like smartphones and PCs, providing a step up in potential earnings growth. Second, semiconductor capex continues to surge, with both management and analysts becoming more convinced of its long-term sustainability. A specific upcoming tailwind is Samsung’s P5 facility expansion, expected to provide a significant boost to MKS’s revenue toward the end of 2027.
Third, wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) intensity – the share of WFE spend flowing through OEMs to suppliers like MKS that provide critical subsystems for chipmaking processes – is currently suppressed due to inventory digestion. Cantor Fitzgerald expects MKS to return to its historical ~2.5% intensity as OEM inventories normalize and potentially exceed these levels as more advanced chips require increasingly complex equipment. Moreover, the total WFE market is projected to grow from ~$100 billion today to $160-180 billion by 2027, making MKS’s “share of the pie” larger in absolute terms.
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❖ Applied Digital (APLD) saw its stock soar after it announced a landmark $7.5 billion, 15-year lease with a new U.S.-based high investment-grade hyperscaler at its 430 MW AI Factory campus, Delta Forge 1, covering 300 MW of critical compute load. Initial operations at Delta Forge 1 are expected to commence in mid-2027.
APLD hasn’t disclosed the name of its new customer, just like with its previous hyperscaler contract, which was signed in October 2025 and covered a lease of 200 MW at its Polaris Forge 2 campus for $5 billion. Now, Applied has locked in three major customers – two investment-grade hyperscalers and the NVIDIA-backed CoreWeave. This deal brings APLD’s total contracted lease revenue across three AI Factory campuses to over $23 billion, with more than 50% of that backlog now backed by investment-grade customers. The company also plans up to $600 million in two new credit facilities to fund continued development.
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❖ Enova International (ENVA) reported impressive Q1 2026 results, with adjusted EPS rising nearly 30% year-over-year to $3.87 and total revenue up 17% to a record of $875 million. Both metrics came in well ahead of analyst expectations. Adjusted EBITDA rose 20% year-over-year to $227 million.
Total loan originations jumped 33% to $2.3 billion, helping lift ENVA’s total receivables portfolio 28% year-over-year to nearly $5.3 billion. Management emphasized continued momentum in small business lending, with originations in this segment up 42% year-over-year to a record $1.7 billion, driving the SMB portfolio growth of 37% over the past year. Consumer loan originations grew 10% year-over-year. Both business segments posted record quarterly revenue, with SMB revenue up 37% to $418 million, and consumer revenue up 3% to $446 million.
Credit performance remained strong, with consolidated net charge-off ratio down 100 bps year-over-year to 7.6% and consolidated net revenue margin expanding to 60% – at the high end of ENVA’s historical range, implying strong pricing and credit tailwinds. Enova ended the quarter with about $1.1 billion of liquidity, including $436 million of cash and marketable securities and $654 million of available capacity on debt facilities. This liquidity, along with the operating cash flow of $474.5 million, has underpinned growth and capital returns, including $16 million of buybacks over the quarter.
Management said that the pending acquisition of Grasshopper Bank remains on track to close in the second half of 2026. The company expects the combination to drive adjusted EPS accretion of more than 25% once synergies are fully realized within the first two years post-closing, supported by geographic expansion and lower funding costs from Grasshopper’s deposit business.
Record Q1 results drove guidance raise for the full year 2026, with originations and revenue expected to increase by 20% each, and adjusted EPS growth of at least 25%, excluding any contribution from the pending Grasshopper Bank acquisition. ENVA sees Q2 2026 revenue rising 15-20% year-over-year with a 55-60% net revenue margin, while the adjusted EPS growth is guided at 20-25%.
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This Week’s Top Growth Pick: Ambarella (AMBA)
Ambarella, Inc. operates at the intersection of edge computing, artificial intelligence, and computer vision, developing semiconductor solutions that enable machines to perceive and interpret their surroundings. The company designs highly efficient system-on-chips that deliver advanced vision processing and AI inference directly on-device, reducing reliance on centralized cloud infrastructure. As cameras and sensors become embedded across vehicles, infrastructure, and smart environments, the need to process visual data instantly and locally continues to grow. Ambarella is positioned at this critical layer, transforming raw sensor input into actionable insight and powering intelligent systems across automotive, security, and edge AI applications.
Source: Ambarella, Inc. Presentation at the Cantor Global Technology & Industrial Growth Conference
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Perception Shift
Ambarella was founded in 2004, initially building its reputation in video compression and image processing, with its chips embedded across early generations of broadcast infrastructure, consumer cameras, and security systems. The company played a quiet but foundational role in several hardware cycles – from enabling full-HD solid-state camcorders to powering the rise of action cameras, most notably through its long-standing relationship with GoPro. Its technology also became deeply embedded in professional and consumer security, as well as in drones, where it helped bring high-definition video to aerial platforms.
That early footprint established Ambarella as a specialist in low-power, high-quality video – but the more consequential shift began in the late 2010s, when it started pivoting toward computer vision and machine learning (ML) at the edge.
A key inflection point came with the rollout of its CVflow architecture, which combined advanced image signal processing with dedicated neural network acceleration on a single chip. This allowed devices not just to capture video, but to interpret it in real time – enabling functions like object detection, classification, and tracking directly on-device. Ambarella’s ML and computer vision capabilities laid the groundwork for what is now widely referred to as edge AI.
Over the past five years, AMBA has expanded that foundation into a broader perception platform. The 2021 acquisition of Oculii added high-resolution radar capabilities, extending the company beyond camera-based vision into multi-sensor perception systems – a critical step for advanced driver assistance and autonomous driving. This marked a deeper push into automotive, where Ambarella had already been building capabilities over years of computer vision development.
At the same time, the company continued evolving its system-on-chip portfolio, integrating increasingly sophisticated AI inference capabilities while maintaining its core strength in power-efficient processing. Its chips are now deployed across a wide range of edge applications, from intelligent security cameras and industrial systems to automotive platforms and emerging robotic use cases.
Partnerships and design wins have supported that expansion, with Ambarella working alongside major security providers, automotive OEMs and Tier-1 suppliers, and platform developers. As visual data becomes central to how machines operate, the company has moved closer to the decision layer – where perception, processing, and action converge.
Together, the shift from video encoding to computer vision, the expansion into radar and automotive perception, and the transition into edge AI have reshaped Ambarella into a semiconductor company aligned with the growing demand for intelligent, vision-driven systems.
Source: Ambarella, Inc. Presentation at the Cantor Global Technology & Industrial Growth Conference
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Embedded IQ
Ambarella’s business is built around designing low-power system-on-chips (SoCs) that combine computer vision, AI inference, and sensor processing into a single platform, enabling devices to not just capture data, but to understand and act on it locally (i.e., on the device itself). This on-device processing reduces reliance on cloud infrastructure while enabling real-time responsiveness in power-constrained environments.
At the core is Ambarella’s CVflow architecture, integrating AI, image processing, and compression into a single SoC. This allows its chips to handle complex perception tasks such as object detection, tracking, and multi-sensor fusion across cameras, radar, and other inputs. AMBA operates in the broader AI semiconductor ecosystem alongside players like NVIDIA, Qualcomm, and Mobileye, but its focus is narrower and more specialized – edge perception and inference. While NVIDIA dominates high-performance AI compute, AMBA targets embedded systems where power, cost, and latency constraints make centralized processing impractical, giving it a distinct role within the AI hardware stack.
The company is targeting a growing set of end markets, with IoT applications accounting for the majority of its business today. This includes AI-enabled security cameras, smart home devices, and industrial vision systems, where demand is shifting toward on-device analytics. Automotive represents the second pillar, focused on driver assistance, telematics, and in-cabin monitoring, with longer-term upside in autonomy through its CV3 platform. Robotics and industrial automation are emerging as a third growth vector, spanning warehouse robotics, factory systems, and drones, where early deployments are already in production and adoption is beginning to scale.
Growth is being driven by rising unit volumes and increasing chip complexity. New product cycles – particularly the ramp of CV72 and CV75 (5nm), followed by the next-generation CV7 built on a 4nm process – are pushing both performance and pricing higher. These chips enable more advanced workloads, including transformer-based models and multi-modal AI, expanding AMBA’s role from video processing to full perception systems. As a result, edge AI now represents roughly 78% of revenue, growing significantly faster than the legacy video processing business.
Adoption is already visible at scale. Ambarella has shipped roughly 42 million AI SoCs, with more than 370 AI-enabled products in production across automotive, security, robotics, and consumer devices. Recent design wins across these segments reinforce the narrative that its technology is moving from niche deployments into broader commercial use.
Ambarella is also moving beyond hardware into a full-stack platform strategy. Its Cooper Developer Platform and software ecosystem allow customers to build and deploy AI applications more easily, increasing switching costs and expanding the company’s footprint within each design. This shift positions AMBA as an infrastructure layer for edge AI, enabling scalable deployment rather than one-off chip sales.
The opportunity set is expanding alongside the market. Ambarella estimates its addressable edge AI market could grow from roughly $5.5 billion to nearly $13 billion over the next five years, driven by automation, smart infrastructure, and the broader adoption of “physical AI.” Its current share remains modest, leaving room for expansion, particularly in automotive, where a multi-year pipeline spans both near-term ADAS deployments and longer-term autonomous systems.
Strategically, the company is moving toward enabling “physical AI agents” – systems that combine perception, planning, and action in real time. This includes pushing into generative AI at the edge, where models run directly on-device, as well as exploring semi-custom and custom ASIC opportunities that could deepen customer integration over time.
Risks are real, but manageable. The business depends on design wins that can take years to convert into revenue, and customer concentration remains high. Competition from larger players is constant, and newer initiatives such as custom ASICs and robotics platforms are still early in their lifecycle. Still, with a growing installed base, expanding product portfolio, and clear alignment with the shift toward intelligent, vision-enabled systems, Ambarella is steadily gaining relevance in markets where efficiency and real-time intelligence matter most.
Source: Ambarella, Inc. Presentation at the Cantor Global Technology & Industrial Growth Conference
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Margin of Intelligence
Ambarella’s financial profile is starting to reflect a company moving from buildout to scale. Fiscal 2026 marked a clear inflection point, with revenue reaching $390.7 million, up 37% year-over-year, materially outpacing the broader semiconductor cycle. Growth has been consistent across recent quarters, with AMBA beating revenue expectations in at least eight consecutive periods and delivering adjusted EPS upside whenever guidance was provided – a pattern that signals consistent execution as its edge AI products gain traction.
The mix behind that growth is just as important as the headline numbers. IoT, still the largest segment, grew roughly 50% year-over-year, while automotive expanded at a high single-digit pace, reflecting a business driven by both volume and rising content per device. Newer AI SoCs such as CV72 and CV75 have already scaled into a meaningful revenue contribution, and the upcoming CV7 ramp is expected to extend that trajectory, supporting further gains in average selling prices and overall revenue quality.
Profitability remains in transition. On a GAAP basis, the company is still reporting losses – roughly $75 million for the full year – but it returned to non-GAAP profitability in FY2026, generating about $27 million in net income after a multi-year investment phase. Gross margins held around 60-61%, down about two percentage points year-over-year, reflecting the cost of moving to advanced 5-nm and 4-nm nodes and the early stages of new product ramps. Operating expenses rose about 13% year-over-year, driven largely by R&D, which still accounts for the majority of the workforce. While margins are temporarily pressured, the underlying model – high gross margins with operating leverage – remains intact.
Cash generation reinforces that view. Ambarella produced roughly $58 million in free cash flow, or about a 15% margin, alongside operating cash flow in the $70 million range. It ended the year with about $313 million in cash and no debt, marking its 17th consecutive year of positive free cash flow. That balance sheet provides both downside protection and flexibility to continue investing through the current growth phase.
Policy support adds a secondary tailwind. The restoration of immediate R&D expensing improves cash flow for innovation-heavy companies like AMBA, effectively lowering the cost of continued investment in advanced AI chips and reinforcing the company’s ability to scale its roadmap without constraining financial flexibility.
Guidance points to continued expansion, but at a more measured pace. Fiscal 2027 revenue growth is seen at 10-15% year-over-year, with gross margins remaining in the 59-62% range. This marks a clear deceleration from the ~37% growth delivered in fiscal 2026, which was driven by a sharp rebound in IoT demand and the early ramp of new AI SoCs. The current outlook reflects a transition from that rebound phase into a more normalized growth cadence, as product ramps mature and comparisons become more demanding. The first quarter is guided to $97-103 million in revenue, reflecting typical seasonality, with automotive expected to grow sequentially and IoT softening before re-accelerating later in the year. Importantly, growth is still expected to be supported by both higher unit volumes and rising ASPs from newer, more complex chips, suggesting the underlying demand trend remains intact despite slower headline growth. Analysts broadly align with this outlook, with expectations centered around low-teens growth and stable margins, indicating a shift toward steadier, more predictable scaling rather than a pullback in demand.
There are clear tradeoffs. Inventory has risen, customer concentration remains high, and margins face near-term pressure from advanced-node costs and pricing dynamics. But those pressures are tied to expansion, not contraction. The business is transitioning from a high-growth ramp phase into a more measured scaling phase, where execution, mix, and operating leverage will matter more than headline growth. With AI-driven demand intact, an improving product mix, and a strong cash position, Ambarella’s financials are increasingly aligned with a company moving toward sustained profitability while still early in its growth curve.
Source: Ambarella, Inc. Presentation at the Cantor Global Technology & Industrial Growth Conference
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Edge in Focus
Ambarella sits within a focused group of mid-cap, AI-driven semiconductor companies operating at the edge of computing, where efficiency, specialization, and product cycles define performance. Lattice Semiconductor provides the clearest benchmark for low-power edge processing and highlights the valuation premium that comes with sustained profitability in this niche. Synaptics offers the closest operating comparison, with similar exposure to embedded and IoT markets and a comparable transition toward higher-value edge AI solutions. Indie Semiconductor adds a vertical lens, reflecting Ambarella’s push into automotive perception and ADAS, and has similar growth-stage risk and long design-cycle dynamics. Together, these peers frame AMBA’s position – a specialized, still-scaling player moving from product ramp to broader platform relevance within the expanding edge AI ecosystem.
The stocks in this group have all risen strongly over the past year, with Lattice leading with a triple-digit gain, benefiting from both strong fundamentals and a meaningful valuation rerating tied to its AI positioning. Indie notched a gain of about 90%, driven by a strong thematic rerating around automotive AI and ADAS adoption. Synaptics rose by roughly 60%, with its embedded and IoT portfolio supporting a transition toward edge AI. Ambarella has lagged the group with a more modest ~40% gain, for both fundamental and external reasons. While Ambarella’s growth has been strong and increasingly driven by edge AI, profitability remains in development, and key growth drivers carry longer design and deployment cycles.
At the same time, AMBA was hit by a sharp, non-fundamental sell-off at the end of February, dropping by nearly 20% in a single session after an ITC ruling involving a third-party customer, despite analysts expecting no meaningful impact on the company’s outlook. The sell-off was compounded by a broader market risk-off move on the onset of the Iran war, limiting the stock’s ability to recover. In total, AMBA declined by roughly 30% between late February and late March – a move that alone likely explains a substantial portion of its relative underperformance over the past year. Importantly, because the drawdown was not driven by fundamentals, it did not alter the Street’s outlook on the company, with analyst price targets implying roughly 43% upside from current levels.
Ambarella’s valuation reflects a balance between strong growth and still-developing profitability. The stock trades well below Lattice on sales multiples, with EV/Sales at roughly 5-6x versus more than 20x for LSCC, despite delivering significantly higher recent revenue growth. At the same time, AMBA sits at a premium to Synaptics and Indie, which is justified by its stronger gross margins and clearer positioning in edge AI. Forward earnings multiples remain elevated, but they compress meaningfully over time, pointing to expected operating leverage as newer AI chips scale. Importantly, AMBA is already generating solid free cash flow with margins above 20%, which supports the current valuation despite GAAP losses. Overall, the stock is priced as a growth-stage semiconductor transitioning toward profitability, with upside tied to execution rather than multiple expansion alone.
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To Sum It All Up
Ambarella operates at a critical layer of the AI stack – where machines interpret and act on the physical world in real time. Its focus on low-power, on-device perception positions it directly within the shift toward intelligent systems embedded in everyday environments, from vehicles and security infrastructure to robotics and automation. As demand grows for faster, more efficient AI that does not rely on the cloud, the company’s technology becomes increasingly relevant. The opportunity is still unfolding. Automotive, industrial, and emerging robotic applications offer multi-year growth runways, while a growing software and platform layer deepens customer integration. The path includes execution risks and timing delays, but the direction is clear. If product cycles continue to scale and adoption broadens across end markets, Ambarella has the potential to evolve from a niche vision specialist into a foundational player in edge AI.
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Smart Growth Portfolio
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Disclaimer
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