Smart Dividend Portfolio Edition: Income Staple
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Dear Investor,
Welcome to this edition of TipRanks’ Smart Dividend Portfolio & Newsletter.
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Market-Moving News: Mar 09, 2026
U.S. stock futures fell sharply at the start of the week as oil prices surged above $100 a barrel amid rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran. The jump in energy prices raised concerns that higher fuel costs could slow the U.S. economy.
Futures on the Nasdaq 100 (NDX), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), and the S&P 500 Index (SPX) were down 1.47%, 1.61%, and 1.39%, respectively, at 2:34 a.m. EST on March 9.
Meanwhile, U.S. stocks closed lower for the week as war risk in the Gulf and a weak jobs report shook the market. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell 1.98%, while the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) slipped 1.24%. The Dow Jones (DJIA) lost 2.95%. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.14%. At the same time, gold (CM:XAUUSD) climbed to $5,173, oil (CM:CL) surged to $91.27, and Bitcoin (BTC-USD) fell near $68,000.
Even so, beneath the index level, the action was sharp. Energy stocks rose with oil, while travel and cyclicals lagged as fuel costs jumped and jobs data cooled hopes for fast growth.
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This Week’s Quality Dividend Stock Idea
The J.M. Smucker Co. (SJM) is a U.S.-based packaged food company that manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products. Its portfolio includes coffee, frozen handheld foods, peanut butter and fruit spreads, pet snacks and cat food, and sweet baked goods. Key brands include Folgers, Café Bustelo, Uncrustables, Jif, Milk-Bone, Meow Mix, and Hostess.
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Growth Ingredients
The J. M. Smucker Co. traces its roots to 1897, when it began as a small cider mill in Orrville, Ohio. Early growth was built on fruit spreads and preserves, where the company established a reputation for quality and brand trust. Over the following decades, national distribution expanded, laying the foundation for durable earnings supported by strong consumer loyalty and consistent cash generation.
A major inflection point came in the early 2000s, when Smucker accelerated its transformation through acquisitions. The purchase of Jif peanut butter and Crisco in 2002 significantly expanded its center-of-store presence and diversified revenue beyond fruit spreads. In 2008, the acquisition of Folgers from Procter & Gamble repositioned the company as a leading player in at-home coffee, adding scale, pricing power, and meaningful earnings contribution.
The next decade focused on deepening brand leadership and broadening adjacencies. The 2015 acquisition of Big Heart Pet Brands marked a strategic move into pet food and snacks, adding Milk-Bone and Meow Mix and creating a second major profit engine outside human food. This shift enhanced category diversification and improved growth resilience.
A key step in expanding its pet business came in 2018 with the acquisition of Ainsworth Pet Nutrition. The transaction added the Rachael Ray Nutrish brand and strengthened the company’s position in premium pet nutrition. This move complemented its existing pet portfolio and deepened exposure to a category benefiting from premiumization and increased consumer spending on pets.
The most transformative deal of the period was the 2023 acquisition of Hostess Brands, including roughly $900 million of assumed debt. The transaction brought well-known snack brands such as Twinkies and Ho Hos into the portfolio and significantly expanded Smucker’s presence in sweet baked snacks. It also marked the company’s largest acquisition to date, reinforcing its push into the broader snacking category.
Alongside acquisitions, Smucker streamlined its portfolio. In 2024, it sold the Voortman cookie business to Second Nature Brands following the Hostess integration. In 2025, it divested the Cloverhill and Big Texas brands to JTM Foods, deciding to prioritize its focus and investment on the Hostess brand.
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Aisle Economics
The J. M. Smucker Co. operates a branded food and pet products model built around category leadership, pricing power, and steady cash conversion. The company generates revenue primarily through packaged coffee, pet food, and snacks, frozen handheld foods, fruit spreads, and sweet baked snacks sold across U.S. retail channels. Its portfolio is organized into core platforms – U.S. Retail Coffee, U.S. Retail Pet Foods, Frozen Handheld and Spreads, International and Away From Home, and Sweet Baked Snacks – each anchored by established brands with strong household penetration.
Revenue is driven by a combination of volume, mix, and pricing. In coffee, Folgers and Café Bustelo benefit from scale, broad distribution, and brand loyalty in the at-home category. The pet segment, led by Milk-Bone, Meow Mix, and Nutrish, captures demand from premiumization and resilient consumer spending. Frozen handhelds, including Uncrustables (frozen, crustless sandwiches), represent a faster-growing platform supported by innovation and capacity expansion. The addition of Hostess broadened the company’s exposure to indulgent snacking and increased its scale in center-of-store categories.
Operationally, Smucker supports margins through brand investment, disciplined pricing, supply chain productivity initiatives, and SKU rationalization, helping offset commodity volatility in inputs such as coffee, grains, and proteins. Scale in procurement and manufacturing contributes to gross margin stability, while marketing and trade spending are concentrated behind priority growth brands. Recurring consumer demand and predictable reorder patterns support steady operating cash flow, and capital expenditures are focused primarily on targeted capacity expansion, particularly in high-growth platforms like Uncrustables.
The International and Away From Home segment represents The J. M. Smucker Company’s operations beyond its core U.S. retail channels. The Away From Home business supplies products to foodservice distributors and operators, including restaurants, hotels, schools, universities, and healthcare facilities. This channel features portion-control items, such as single-serve jam, peanut butter, and condiment packets commonly used in restaurants and lodging establishments, along with foodservice-sized coffee, flour, and baking ingredients. The Dunkin’ brand is also licensed to Smucker for packaged coffee sold in retail and certain away-from-home channels.
The International business distributes products through retail and foodservice channels outside the United States. Canada has historically been the company’s most significant international market, supported by brands such as Folgers, Robin Hood Flour, Five Roses Flour, and Smucker’s fruit spreads. As part of a broader portfolio simplification strategy, Smucker divested its Canada condiment business in January 2024.
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Stirring Stability
When Elliott Investment Management took a significant (though undisclosed) stake in the company, investors anticipated potential structural changes. Management, however, characterized the engagement as constructive and focused on operational improvement and governance enhancement, rather than a breakup. The appointments of Bruce Chung and David Singer as independent directors were framed as part of ongoing board refreshment and value creation. While the portfolio remains under continuous review, there is no indication of imminent major asset sales or a forced restructuring. The activist presence introduces strategic optionality, but current signals point to execution improvement rather than structural overhaul.
Sweet Baked Snacks, which includes brands acquired through Hostess Brands such as Twinkies and Ho Hos, is currently facing both softer demand and higher operating costs. The segment’s bakery network carries significant fixed costs, including manufacturing, labor, and distribution. When volumes decline but production facilities continue operating, those fixed costs are spread across fewer units, which compresses profit margins.
The segment saw a significant decline in sales in the fiscal third quarter and recorded significant impairment charges, reflecting integration challenges following the Hostess acquisition and weaker consumer demand. To improve efficiency, management is simplifying the product portfolio by reducing stock-keeping units (SKUs) by about 25%. The goal is to eliminate slower-moving products and concentrate production and marketing on higher-volume items, which can improve manufacturing efficiency, streamline inventory management, and strengthen retail shelf performance.
Additional corrective actions include the closure of the Indianapolis facility, expected to generate approximately $30 million in annualized savings, and reduced promotional spending through fiscal 2026.
By contrast, the company’s core business remains resilient. In U.S. Retail Coffee, net sales growth was driven primarily by earlier pricing actions, while volume declines were modest, indicating steady demand. Pricing has remained disciplined, with elasticity trends tracking within expectations.
For companies like SJM, commodity costs, particularly green coffee beans, can have a significant impact on gross margins. When coffee input costs fall, companies can either lower prices to stimulate demand or maintain pricing and allow margins to expand. The recent moderation in coffee costs is beginning to flow through the income statement, supporting profitability. As a result, operating margins in the coffee segment are expected to improve, with management guiding toward margins in the mid-20% range in the fourth quarter.
Ground coffee and single-serve pods serve somewhat different consumer segments and carry different margin structures. Pods typically sell at higher price points and generate stronger margins, while traditional ground coffee is more price sensitive but benefits from broader household penetration. Pricing decisions are being managed carefully across these formats to balance volume stability with profitability following earlier price increases tied to commodity inflation.
Café Bustelo also delivered strong momentum, with net sales up 46% in U.S. Retail Coffee and volume/mix growth of 20%. The brand gained share across segments and is expected to exceed $500 million in fiscal 2026 net sales, an increase of more than $100 million year-over-year, supported by expanded roast profiles and growing appeal among younger consumers.
Uncrustables stands out as the company’s most important growth engine. Brand net sales rose 10% in the quarter, and the business is on track to surpass $1 billion in annual net sales this fiscal year. Household penetration stands at 26%, leaving room for expansion. Growth is supported by distribution gains, particularly in convenience channels, and innovation, including fridge-friendly formats and protein-focused varieties such as Up & Apple and Bright-Eyed Berry, which are generating approximately $1 million in weekly sales. The brand added 3.5 million households over the past year and continues to gain share.
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Growth Pockets
Over the past five years, Smucker has delivered steady financial progress, with revenue and adjusted earnings per share growing at compound annual rates of approximately 1.8% and 7%, respectively. This growth has been supported by strong brand performance, particularly Uncrustables and the company’s coffee portfolio, along with pricing actions implemented during inflationary periods and ongoing portfolio transformation through acquisitions and divestitures.
In the fiscal third quarter, Smucker reported results that exceeded internal expectations, led primarily by strong pricing in coffee. Net sales rose 7% year over year to $2.3 billion, broadly in line with consensus estimates, while comparable net sales increased 8%. The improvement was largely pricing-driven, with a 10-percentage-point contribution from net price realization that was partially offset by a 2-point decline in volume and mix. Coffee pricing was the dominant driver of the company’s top-line expansion.
However, the stronger sales performance did not fully translate into profitability. Adjusted gross profit declined 3%, or $28 million, as higher commodity costs, tariffs, and unfavorable volume mix weighed on margins. These pressures were partially offset by pricing actions. Tariffs alone represented an approximately $79 million headwind during the quarter, primarily affecting the U.S. Retail Coffee segment as well as International and Away From Home operations. Adjusted operating income fell 7%, as lower gross profit and the absence of prior-year property tax benefits more than offset reduced selling, distribution, and administrative expenses. Adjusted earnings per share were $2.38, down 9% year over year but still ahead of Wall Street expectations. The company has 106.9 million shares outstanding.
Cash generation was a notable bright spot. Free cash flow reached $487 million, an increase of $336 million from the prior year, driven by stronger operating cash flow and lower capital expenditures. The company ended the quarter with approximately $7.3 billion in net debt and a leverage ratio of about 4.1x trailing twelve-month adjusted EBITDA of roughly $1.8 billion. This elevated leverage primarily reflects the debt-funded acquisition of Hostess Brands, which increased borrowing while the Sweet Baked Snacks segment has faced softer-than-expected demand and integration challenges. Management is actively working to reduce leverage and is targeting approximately $500 million in annual debt reduction this fiscal year and next, with the goal of bringing net debt-to-EBITDA to 3.0x or lower by the end of fiscal 2027. The company maintains a long-term credit rating of “BBB” from S&P Global Ratings, indicating a stable outlook.
During the quarter, Smucker recorded significant non-cash impairment charges totaling $962 million, including $508 million related to goodwill in the Sweet Baked Snacks reporting unit and $454 million tied to the Hostess trademark. Long-term growth expectations for the segment were reduced to about 2%, and the Hostess trademark will begin amortizing in the fourth quarter.
Segment performance reflected a clear divergence across the portfolio. U.S. Retail Coffee net sales rose 23%, entirely driven by pricing, while volume/mix declined 1 point. Segment profit declined 5% due to higher commodity costs and tariffs. Green coffee tariffs will not be fully recovered in fiscal 2026, but are expected to roll off in fiscal 2027.
Segment performance reflected a clear divergence across the company’s portfolio. U.S. Retail Coffee was the strongest contributor, with net sales rising 23% entirely due to pricing, while volume and mix declined slightly. Segment profit declined 5%, however, as higher green coffee costs and tariffs offset the benefit of pricing. Management noted that tariffs on green coffee are not expected to be fully recovered in fiscal 2026, but shouldn’t be an issue in fiscal 2027.
U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads posted 2% net sales growth and 4% profit growth. Uncrustables continued to perform well, with sales increasing 6%, while Jif peanut butter also recorded gains. These increases were partly offset by declines in Smucker’s fruit spreads. Innovation remains a focus in the category, including Jif Simply, a cleaner-label version of the classic product.
The U.S. Retail Pet Foods segment saw net sales decline 1%, primarily due to the lapping of contract manufacturing tied to previously divested brands and weaker performance in Pup-Peroni. Despite the sales decline, segment profit increased 4% due to lower marketing spending. The pet portfolio remains relatively stable, supported by premiumization trends. Milk-Bone grew net sales 3% with gains in both volume and household penetration, while Meow Mix outperformed its category and expanded its Gravy Bursts platform with new product extensions.
The Sweet Baked Snacks segment remained the weakest area of the portfolio. Net sales declined 19%, and segment profit dropped 78%, reflecting operational challenges, higher costs, SKU reductions, and a deliberate pullback in promotional activity.
In contrast, the International and Away From Home segment delivered strong results, with net sales increasing 12% and segment profit rising 17%. The Away From Home business grew 15%, led by coffee and Uncrustables, and is now expected to represent approximately 10% of total company net sales in fiscal 2026. International sales grew 6% on a comparable basis.
Despite mixed segment performance, portfolio health metrics remained stable. Over the latest 13 weeks in measured retail channels, about 66% of the portfolio is gaining or maintaining dollar share, while roughly 75% is gaining or maintaining volume share.
Looking ahead, Smucker updated its fiscal 2026 outlook. The company now expects net sales growth of 3.5% to 4.0%, with the midpoint reduced slightly due to the Sweet Baked Snacks slowdown and a fire at its Emporia, Kansas facility. Comparable net sales are projected to increase about 5.25% at the midpoint, while adjusted gross margin guidance remains unchanged at roughly 35%.
Selling, distribution, and administrative expenses are expected to be flat to slightly lower year over year, supported by cost-saving initiatives. Marketing spending is projected to represent about 5.5% of net sales, with higher investment directed toward Uncrustables and Café Bustelo.
Importantly, Smucker maintained its adjusted EPS guidance of about $9.00 at the midpoint and continues to expect free cash flow of roughly $975 million, with capital expenditures forecast at approximately $325 million. Management emphasized that the broader guidance range reflects prudence in a volatile environment rather than weakening fundamentals. Several factors could influence results, including commodity costs, tariff impacts, stabilization of the Sweet Baked Snacks segment, and disruption from the recent facility fire, which is expected to reduce fourth-quarter sales by about $25 million.
Key drivers of the updated outlook include stronger-than-expected coffee performance, with fourth-quarter pricing projected to drive roughly 20% growth in that segment, while Sweet Baked Snacks is expected to decline in the low-teens range during the fourth quarter.
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Dividend Delight
The J.M. Smucker Co. has established a strong track record of returning capital to shareholders through dividends. The company has paid dividends consistently for 28 years and has increased its payout for 24 consecutive years, highlighting the stability of its cash flows. Over the past decade, the dividend has grown at an annual rate of about 6%, while the company distributes roughly 50% of its adjusted earnings to shareholders. With a dividend yield of approximately 4.45%, Smucker currently offers an income return that is nearly double the consumer sector average of about 2.57%, making the stock particularly appealing to income-oriented investors.
Share repurchases have played a relatively modest role in the company’s recent capital return strategy. During the nine months ending January 31, 2026, the company did not repurchase any shares under its Board-authorized repurchase program. As of January 31, 2026, approximately $122 million of share repurchase capacity remained available under the company’s existing Board authorization.
Over the past year, SJM’s stock has declined by around 5% largely due to challenges related to the integration and underperformance of its acquisition of Hostess Brands, which resulted in significant impairment charges as the company adjusted expectations for the sweet baked snacks category. However, Smucker has been actively reshaping its portfolio and strengthening its balance sheet, while growth in products such as Uncrustables and improving margins in its pet food business highlight areas of resilience within the broader portfolio.
Currently, SJM stock offers a attractive entry point. The stock is trading below its historical averages on several measures, including trailing and forward P/E, EV/EBITDA, and forward price-to-cash-flow multiples, indicating that much of the recent negative sentiment around the Hostess Brands acquisition may already be reflected in the share price. At the same time, compared with peers such as The Kraft Heinz Company, Conagra Brands, and Hormel Foods, Smucker trades in the low valuation range based on forward EV/EBITDA, indicating investors are paying less for each dollar of Smucker’s expected operating earnings.
Despite recent challenges, analysts remain optimistic about SJM due to the potential for improvement in the company’s operating performance. Improved governance, including the addition of board members recommended by Elliott Management, is expected to strengthen operational discipline and capital allocation at the company, potentially boosting investor confidence. At the same time, resilient demand in core categories such as coffee, pet food, and peanut butter, along with disciplined cost management, supports more stable earnings. Easing input costs and opportunities to streamline the cost structure could further improve margins and strengthen cash generation over time.
Consensus estimates suggest roughly 22% upside from current levels, while more optimistic projections point to potential gains of up to 107%. Against this backdrop, discounted cash flow analysis indicates that Smucker’s shares may be trading at an estimated 58% discount to intrinsic value, positioning the stock as a potentially attractive opportunity for long-term investors.
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Investing Takeaway
For income-focused investors, J. M. Smucker stands out as a steady dividend payer supported by resilient consumer brands and consistent cash generation. Demand for everyday staples such as coffee, peanut butter, and pet food tends to remain stable across economic cycles, helping the company produce predictable cash flows that support shareholder distributions. While the integration of Hostess Brands has created near-term operational challenges and temporarily elevated leverage, management’s focus on debt reduction and portfolio simplification should gradually strengthen the balance sheet. At the same time, growth engines like Uncrustables and strong positions in coffee and pet snacks provide long-term earnings support. With a long history of dividend payments and a business model built on durable consumer demand, Smucker offers investors a combination of income stability and potential long-term capital appreciation.
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Dividend Investor Portfolio
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Portfolio News
▣ ADP’s (ADP) ex-dividend date is March 13 with the dividend expected to be paid on April 1, 2026.
▣ Amgen (AMGN) declared a $2.52 per share dividend for the second quarter of 2026. The dividend will be paid on June 5 to all stockholders of record as of the close of business on May 15, 2026.
▣ Shares of BlackRock (BLK) came under pressure during the past week after the asset manager restricted withdrawals from one of its large private credit vehicles. The firm capped redemptions from the HPS Corporate Lending Fund, a $26 billion private credit fund, at its 5% quarterly withdrawal limit following a surge in investor redemption requests. As a result, the fund approved about $620 million in withdrawals out of approximately $1.2 billion requested by investors.
The move reflects the liquidity controls commonly used in private credit structures but also underscores rising redemption pressure in parts of the private credit market. Private credit funds typically limit withdrawals because the underlying loans are illiquid and cannot be quickly sold to meet large redemption requests. The development drew investor attention to potential liquidity risks in rapidly growing private credit strategies.
Separately, BlackRock continued to expand its infrastructure investment activity. A consortium led by its Global Infrastructure Partners unit agreed to acquire power producer AES in a deal valued at about $33.4 billion including debt, reflecting rising investor demand for electricity infrastructure tied to AI data-center growth.
▣ ExxonMobil (XOM) was in focus during the week as geopolitical tensions and shifting oil trade flows shaped investor sentiment. Escalating conflict involving Iran disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, tightening global supply and pushing oil prices higher, a development that supported shares of major producers, including ExxonMobil.
Amid the disruption, ExxonMobil is preparing to ship gasoline from the U.S. Gulf Coast to Australia for the first time in over two years, highlighting how changing trade routes are creating new export opportunities for U.S. refiners. The company has reportedly chartered vessels capable of delivering up to 600,000 barrels of fuel later in March.
▣ Honeywell (HON) announced that the company’s spinoff of its aerospace division into a separate publicly traded company is expected to be completed in the third quarter of 2026. The planned entity will combine several aerospace businesses, including electronic solutions, engines, and power systems, and advanced control systems. These operations serve a broad range of end markets across commercial aviation, defense, and space. The separation is part of Honeywell’s broader strategy to streamline its portfolio and allow each business to operate with greater strategic focus.
▣ Kroger (KR) reported fourth-quarter and full-year fiscal 2025 results, posting adjusted earnings of $1.28 per share, ahead of analyst expectations of $1.20. Revenue rose modestly to $34.73 billion, while identical sales excluding fuel increased 2.4% year over year. Net income reached $861 million, up from $634 million in the prior-year quarter.
As part of its previously announced $7.5 billion share repurchase authorization, Kroger completed a $5 billion accelerated share repurchase program and repurchased the remaining shares through open market transactions by the end of fiscal 2025. In December 2025, Kroger’s Board of Directors approved an additional $2 billion share repurchase authorization, which the company expects to complete by the end of fiscal 2026.
Despite the earnings beat, Kroger issued cautious fiscal 2026 guidance, projecting identical sales growth of 1%–2% and adjusted EPS of $5.20 at midpoint, slightly below market expectations as the company emphasizes value pricing amid a challenging consumer environment. The retailer also announced an expansion of its Private Selection private-label line with more than 20 new ready-to-eat and frozen meals, aimed at capturing demand for convenient, restaurant-style food at home.
Recent Trades
None at the moment, although we are considering adding a stock to our portfolio when the market conditions allow for an attractive entry point. Stay tuned.
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Portfolio Attributes
| Dividend Portfolio Yield |
Expected Dividend Growth | Expected Annual Income |
| 3.96% | +5.51% | $6,139.13 |
| Yield-on-Cost Adjusted, Weighted |
Average Analyst 12-Month Growth Outlook | 10K Per Stock at the Time of Purchase |
Current Portfolio
| Name | EX-Dividend Date | Payment Date | Yield on Cost | Annual DPS |
| Automatic Data Processing (ADP) | Jun 15, 2026 | Jul 01, 2026 | 2.46% | $6.80 |
| Amgen (AMGN) | May 15, 2026 | Jun 05, 2026 | 3.27% | $10.08 |
| BlackRock (BLK) | Jun 05, 2026 | Jun 23, 2026 | 2.61% | $22.92 |
| Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) | Apr 01, 2026 | Apr 28, 2026 | 5.98% | $3.21 |
| EOG Resources (EOG) | Apr 16, 2026 | Apr 30, 2026 | 3.06% | $4.08 |
| ExxonMobil (XOM) | May 15, 2026 | Jun 10, 2026 | 3.64% | $4.12 |
| Honeywell International (HON) | May 18, 2026 | Jun 08, 2026 | 2.39% | $4.76 |
| IBM (IBM) | May 12, 2026 | Jun 10, 2026 | 3.14% | $6.72 |
| JPMorgan Chase (JPM) | Apr 07, 2026 | Apr 30, 2026 | 3.43% | $6.00 |
| Kroger (KR) | May 15, 2026 | Jun 01, 2026 | 3.08% | $1.40 |
| Cisco Systems (CSCO) | Apr 07, 2026 | Apr 28, 2026 | 2.22% | $1.68 |
| PepsiCo (PEP) | Jun 05, 2026 | Jun 26, 2026 | 3.8% | $5.69 |
| Philip Morris (PM) | Mar 19, 2026 | Apr 13, 2026 | 6.06% | $5.88 |
| Qualcomm (QCOM) | Jun 05, 2026 | Jun 26, 2026 | 2.36% | $3.56 |
| VICI Properties (VICI) | Mar 19, 2026 | Apr 09, 2026 | 5.22% | $1.8 |
| Verizon (VZ) | Apr 13, 2026 | May 05, 2026 | 6.09% | $2.76 |
NameEX-Dividend DatePayment DateYield on Cost Annual DPS
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Click here for more stock market analysis from TipRanks Macro & Markets research analyst Yulia Vaiman
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Disclaimer
The information contained in this article represents the views and opinions of the writer only, and not the views or opinions of TipRanks or its affiliates and should be considered for informational purposes only. TipRanks makes no warranties about the completeness, accuracy, or reliability of such information. Nothing in this article should be taken as a recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell securities. Nothing in the article constitutes legal, professional, investment, and/or financial advice and/or takes into account the specific needs and/or requirements of an individual, nor does any information in the article constitute a comprehensive or complete statement of the matters or subject discussed therein. TipRanks and its affiliates disclaim all liability or responsibility with respect to the content of the article, and any action taken upon the information in the article is at your own and sole risk. The link to this article does not constitute an endorsement or recommendation by TipRanks or its affiliates. Past performance is not indicative of future results, prices, or performance.
